The priority given to vaccinations is not just a concern about health but a hope that one day we can all get back to ‘normal’. To a time before the pandemic. Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly clear that a full return to the way things were is becoming increasingly unlikely and not just because of the Pandemic, we also have Brexit and Climate Change too. Changes in social behaviour, working from home, video conferencing, global supply chain changes, restrictions on imports and exports to the EU, carbon reduction, a reduction in low cost labour and higher wage costs are just some of the current challenges. And whilst they might ease, they are unlikely to go away. If anything the challenges are likely to grow.
Scenario Planning in Uncertain Times
So how do you plan with so many challenges and with so much future uncertainty? For some organisations the answers are simple, for others they are more complex. The starting point is to prepare not one strategic plan but several based on a series of possible scenarios. Key factors for inclusion in the different scenarios could include:
- Increased operating costs. How will this affect demand?
- Volatile supply chains. Time to look at increased stockholding or more local sourcing?
- Unpredictable store and eCom volumes split. Developing solutions with the potential to flex.
- Volatile operating costs. Can new forms of commercial agreements be entered into with customers?
- Carbon reduction. The introduction of new technology?
- Increased labour costs. Can increased automation play a role?
- Increased transport costs. Can the business afford current service levels?
- Unpredictable sales demand. Time to negotiate more flexible supply agreements?
- Continuing border constraints. Time to look at alternative solutions with regards the EU and NI?
The demands on senior management to plan for a range of scenarios has never been greater as it will determine the long term prosperity of your organisation. Davies & Robson with a lifetime in business planning and infrastructure modelling are able to evaluate alternative solutions to different scenarios. We would be delighted to discuss how we can be of help.
For an informal discussion please call 01327 349090